SM31A-4153:
Estimate of Solar Maximum using the 1-8 Å GOES X-ray Measurements
Wednesday, 17 December 2014
Lisa M Winter, Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. Superior, Superior, CO, United States and K S Balasubramaniam, Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States
Abstract:
We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA GOES X-ray data in the 1-8 Angstrom band from 1986 - present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and date of so- lar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averaged maximum in Solar Cycle 24 in late 2013. This agrees with the NOAA prediction of a maximum in Fall 2013.
