Investigating the geoeffectivness of CMEs, based on ejection location, utilizing the Enlil model

Abstract:

Understanding how differences in Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) ejection position affects the geoeffectivness of a given event may be important in developing more accurate and informed space weather forecasts. To this end, with the assistance of the Enlil model and GHOSTkit analytical tools, we are investigating how variations in launch location affect geoeffectivness. We have begun our investigation by creating a grid of Enlil runs representing a CME impact domain. Specifically, we are investigating the halo CME of 06 October 2013, and establishing an impact domain of Enlil runs with CME launch locations from -45 degrees to +45 degrees (north/south and east/west) in 5 degree increments. This domain provides us sufficient data to see variations in critical values of interest. With a goal of identifying how errors in measurements affect space weather forecasts, variations at 1AU for density, velocity, magnetic field, temperature, beta, and epsilon are being investigated to see if any useful patterns in the resulting solar wind can be identified. Once useful information is identified, the analysis will be performed on additional events in an attempt to validate our findings.