A palaeo-ecological assessment of the resilience of south-east Asian dry forests to monsoon extremes

Abstract:

Predictions that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extremes will rise in coming decades are being made with increasing confidence. There is concern that these climatic changes may drive tropical monsoon forests across critical thresholds, triggering ecological regime shifts. The global consequences of such shifts, coupled with knowledge gaps around the nature and intensity of drivers needed to instigate ecosystem reorganization, highlights the need for research that analyses the resilience of these seasonal forest to future climatic change. While work has indicated that these forests may be susceptible to reorganization to savanna under changing precipitation regimes, the interactions between climatic drivers and ecosystem response is still poorly understood, particularly in the seasonal forests outside of the neo- and afro-tropics. This study presents results on the threshold dynamics of the extensive south-east Asian seasonally dry tropical forest ecoregion (SASDTF) through analysis of plant microfossils and charcoal archived in sediment cores extracted from two tropical crater lakes in Cambodia. These data are compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to gauge past forest response to monsoon extremes, and provide insight into the magnitude and duration of climatic events most likely to result in the breaching of critical thresholds. Our results suggest that, at a biome level, the SASDTF appears resilient to low-amplitude climatic variations over millennia, despite instrumental observations of strong precipitation-tree cover coupling in global dry forest resilience models.