Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

Abstract:

Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 – 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes.

Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated, and fire probabilities returned to similar levels before the rise 2000 years ago. These results suggested that the synergy of humans plus drought have played a large role in historical fire regimes in Amazonian forests for the last 2000 years.