Is Lake Tahoe Terminal?

Abstract:

Lake Tahoe, an iconic ultra-oligotrophic lake in the central Sierra Nevada, has been studied intensively since 1968, with the goal of understanding and ultimately controlling its eutrophication and loss of clarity. Research on the lake has included a) periodic profiles of primary productivity, nutrients, temperature, and plankton; b) Secchi depth; c) nutrient limitation experiments; d) analysis of sediment cores; e) radiocarbon dating of underwater in-place tree stumps; g) analysis of long-term temperature trends. Work in its watershed has included a) monitoring of stream discharge, sediment and nutrients at up to 20 stream gaging stations; b) monitoring of urban runoff water quality at selected sites; c) development of a GIS data base, including soils, vegetation, and land use. Based on these studies, we know that a) primary productivity in the lake is limited by phosphorus, and continues to increase; b) the loss of clarity continues, but at a declining rate; c) the lake has been warming since 1970, and its resistance to deep mixing is increasing; d) historically the lake level drops below the outlet elevation about one year in seven; e) 6300 to 4300 yrs BP lake level was below the present outlet elevation long enough for large trees to grow; f) the date of the peak snowmelt runoff is shifting toward earlier dates; g) after accounting for annual runoff, loads of nutrients and suspended sediment have declined significantly in some basin streams since 1980.

Downscaled outputs from GCM climatic models have recently been used to drive hydrologic models and a lake clarity model, projecting future trends in the lake and watersheds. Results show a) the temperature and thermal stability will likely continue to increase, with deep mixing shutting down in the latter half of this century; b) the lake may drop below the outlet for an extended period beginning about 2085; c) the annual snowpack will continue to decline, with earlier snowmelt and shift from snowfall to rain; d) the climatic water deficit will increase, especially at high elevations that will be most affected by the loss of snow, with likely consequences for existing vegetation and fire frequency.

Hydrologically, Lake Tahoe is intermittently terminal; in a medical sense it is not yet terminal, but its condition—especially its valued clarity and deep blue color--is serious.