NH21C-06:
Multi-parameter Observations and Validation of Pre-earthquake Atmospheric Signals

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 9:15 AM
Dimitar Ouzounov, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States; Chapman University, CEESMO, Orange, CA, United States, Sergey A Pulinets, Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, Katsumi Hattori, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, Toru Mogi, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan and Menas Kafatos, Chapman University, Orange, CA, United States
Abstract:
We are presenting the latest development in multi-sensors observations of short-term pre-earthquake phenomena preceding major earthquakes. We are exploring the potential of pre-seismic atmospheric and ionospheric signals to alert for large earthquakes. To achieve this, we start validating anomalous ionospheric /atmospheric signals in retrospective and prospective modes.

The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal infrared radiation (OLR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), VHF-bands radio waves, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity patterns) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011], which explains the synergy of different geospace processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. Our validation processes consist in two steps: (1) A continuous retrospective analysis preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009 The retrospective tests (100+ major earthquakes, M>5.9, Taiwan and Japan) show OLR anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 25%. (2) Prospective testing using multiple parameters with potential for M5.5+ events. The initial testing shows systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies in advance (days) to the M5.5+ events for Taiwan and Japan (Honshu and Hokkaido areas).

Our initial prospective results suggest that our approach show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies, one to several days prior to the largest earthquakes That feature could be further studied and tested for advancing the multi-sensors detection of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals.

Back to: Interdisciplinary Study of Pre-earthquake Processes: Observation, Validation, Modeling, and Forecasting I
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