Evaluating Vulnerability and Resilience between Urban and Rural Area in a Regional Water Resources System under Climate Change

Abstract:

To the threat of climate change, the risk of water resources vary in different area but the same system because of the structure of water supply system and the different sensitivity and exposure to climate for different urbanization area. For example, the urban area with high population density is sensitive to any disturbance from drought and the rural area with unpopular tap water system is insensitive to disturbance of drought but highly risk to water shortage. The resilience of water supply relies on water storage from reservoirs or lakes and water management in urban area but relies on intake from groundwater in rural area. The strategies to water resources should be considered with the water mass flow between urban and rural area. To strengthen the whole water resources system, also, it is important to find where the vulnerability from, how to reduce it and how to build up the resilience for both urban and rural area.

This study aims to evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of water resources in different township and city but in the same system. An integrated tool – TaiWAP (Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program) for climate change vulnerability assessment on water resources is used for climate impact assessment. For the simulation of the complex water supply system, the system dynamics model- VENSIM which is connected with TaiWAP is adopted to simulate a water supply system and evaluate risk of each township and city in a water supply system. The cause of vulnerability will be identified and discussed in both urban and rural. The strategies to reduce vulnerability of water resources for urban and rural will be proposed and discussed in this study.