Future consequences of the strengthening of the ENSO-ENSO precursors association

Wednesday, 17 December 2014
JinHo Yoon1, Shih-Yu Wang2, Robert R Gillies2, Larry Hipps2, wan Ru Huang3, Ben Kravitz4 and Philip J Rasch1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Lab, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, (3)NTNU National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
A series of the previous studies documented that ENSO would change in such a way that extreme ENSO happen more frequently and its association with the various precursors, such as sea surface anomalies over the Western North Pacific (WNP), become more robust. In this presentation, the multi-model and multi-ensemble analysis is performed to identify what are the consequences of these changes. For example, the 2013-2014 California drought was linked to the early phase of the ENSO, i.e., ENSO precursors, through an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system over the North Pacific Ocean. Under the global warming with more frequent extreme ENSO and the tighter ENSO-ENSO precursors association, what is the future of the drought over California and the Western United States? The multi-model archived in the CMIP5 and the multi-ensemble of CESM1 provide a unique opportunity to have more confident projection.