North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Status and Future Plans

Abstract:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is multi-institutional multi-agency system to improve operational monthly and seasonal forecasts based on the prediction systems developed at the major US climate modeling centers (NOAA/EMC, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA) and Canada. Although currently in an experimental stage, the NMME prediction system has been providing routine real-time monthly and seasonal forecasts since August 2011 that adhere to the CPC operational schedule. The monthly mean NMME reforecast data are archived and available to the public. The Phase-II monthly and the daily NMME reforecast data will be available, beginning in July 2014, from the UCAR server. NMME real-time forecasts are currently being used for applications such as drought and hydrologic prediction, and serve as a key guidance element for operational CPC forecasters. The NMME current seasonal forecast system is developed as a Climate Test Bed (CTB) research project supported by NOAA/MAPP program with additional contribution from DOE, NASA and NSF. This talk describes the NMME system, provides an overview of retrospective and real-time forecast quality, and some basic prediction science based on the forecasts.