The International Multi-Model Ensemble: skill evaluation and developments

Abstract:

NCEP collects and processes monthly average forecast output data from ECMWF, MeteoFrance and MetOffice, along with CFSv2 outputs to generate seasonal forecast products on a routine basis. These models form what is called the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME), which are developed and maintained at operational centers, thus their outputs are reliable and their skills are constantly improving. The IMME products add to the robust collection of guidance tools made available to forecasters at CPC and to other users through a CPC’s website. In particular, IMME complements to the NMME efforts to provide forecasts based on state-of-the-art dynamical models.