Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

Abstract:

The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies.

This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity in Guatemala (e.g., agricultural productivity), while others (e.g., land dynamics and access to water resources) are restricted to certain regions and have a relatively important weight in determining the success or failure of policies in these regions.