Building Adaptive Capacity with the Delphi Method and Mediated Modeling for Water Quality and Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Champlain Basin

Abstract:

Eutrophication and nutrient pollution of surface waters occur within complex governance, social, hydrologic and biophysical basin contexts. The pervasive and perennial nutrient pollution in Lake Champlain Basin, despite decades of efforts, exemplifies problems found across the world’s surface waters. Stakeholders with diverse values, interests, and forms of explicit and tacit knowledge determine water quality impacts through land use, agricultural and water resource decisions. Uncertainty, ambiguity and dynamic feedback further complicate the ability to promote the continual provision of water quality and ecosystem services. Adaptive management of water resources and land use requires mechanisms to allow for learning and integration of new information over time. The transdisciplinary Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) team is working to build regional adaptive capacity in Lake Champlain Basin while studying and integrating governance, land use, hydrological, and biophysical systems to evaluate implications for adaptive management. The RACC team has engaged stakeholders through mediated modeling workshops, online forums, surveys, focus groups and interviews. In March 2014, CSS2CC.org, an interactive online forum to source and identify adaptive interventions from a group of stakeholders across sectors was launched. The forum, based on the Delphi Method, brings forward the collective wisdom of stakeholders and experts to identify potential interventions and governance designs in response to scientific uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of any strategy, climate change impacts, and the social and natural systems governing water quality and eutrophication. A Mediated Modeling Workshop followed the forum in May 2014, where participants refined and identified plausible interventions under different governance, policy and resource scenarios. Results from the online forum and workshop can identify emerging consensus across scales and sectors and be simulated in adaptation scenarios within integrated models. Comparing interventions and scenarios to existing and planned policy and governance systems in Lake Champlain Basin allows for new feedback to build adaptive capacity to identify key leverage points in the coupled natural and human system.