Heartbeat Of the Sun Derived With PCA From Solar Background Magnetic Field And Its Use For Prediction Of the Solar Activity

Abstract:

We report the principal components derived from the solar background magnetic field (SBMF in cycles 21-23) in a form of pairs of magnetic waves travelling with a phase shift from one hemisphere to another and analysed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles. This analysis allowed us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the solar background magnetic field and to extrapolate these PCs to the cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 fit very closely (with accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations. This approach predicts a strong reduction of the solar background magnetic field in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted principal components (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The derived mathematical laws in PCs are also used to predict the dynamics of solar magnetic waves on larger temporal scales of centuries. The derived variations of PCs in SBMF are probed by the modified two layers Parker’s dynamo model allowing us to predict on the similar temporal scale the evolution of the solar activity which reveal a remarkable close fit to the observations.