An updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico.

Abstract:

The Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt is the volcanic arc located in Central Mexico. This zone is not as seismically active as some other regions in Mexico, such as the subduction zone along the Pacific coast. However, there is evidence of major historical earthquakes (M > 7) occurring on the volcanic belt near densely populated cities such as Mexico City, Guadalajara and Morelia. Furthermore, almost 50% of the population of the country lives in cities and towns located on the Volcanic Belt. Using empirical magnitude-Intensity regressions, data obtained from historical descriptions of earthquakes were calibrated with instrumental data to determine their moment magnitude in order to create a complete seismic catalogue of this geological province. We propose a methodology to solve the problem of merging both historical and instrumental datasets. The method consists of dividing our catalogue into three different segments, according to the temporary nature and magnitude of our records. This segmentation was made considering the cut-off magnitude of our catalogue. In this way, we determined three Gutenberg-Richter distributions and correlated them geometrical and statistically. Based on the local seismic sources and using Bayesian statistics as well as appropriate seismic waves attenuation models, we generate seismic hazard maps that would be useful for more than 40 million people that live in the zone.