Modelling Glacier Mass Balance on Regional and Global Scales: How Precise Can the Models Be?

Abstract:

Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth’s hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea-level rise. On regional and local scales, glacier meltwater is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. Until recently, the lack of basic inventory data was a major impediment in global mass balance assessments and projections. The recently completed Randolph Glacier Inventory, the first globally complete glacier inventory, is a major forward step towards reducing uncertainties in global-scale studies. In this talk I will review some of the recent attempts to model glacier mass changes on regional and global scales, and discuss the main challenges these models face. Particular emphasis will be given to the use of glacier mass balance observations in model calibration and evaluation.