Hydroclimatology of Extreme Drought and Flood Events in the Northern High Plains, U.S.

Abstract:

The goal is to illustrate the hydroclimatology of extreme droughts and floods, in the Northern High Plains (NHP). The state of Nebraska has the largest number of irrigated acres in the US by state; thus is exceedingly dependent on the availability of groundwater. Regions along the great Ogallala aquifer have already experienced a dramatic reduction of groundwater with most areas seeing water table drops of 10-50 feet in depth, with several recorded drops of over 100 feet. Finite groundwater resources availability challenges agroecosystems and ecosystem sustainability, leaving productive areas subject to the availability of surface water. However, our understanding on the predictability of extreme events is still limited. Thus our question is: What is the sensitivity of the NHP to extreme droughts and floods? Duration, frequency, and the area of influence of floods and droughts vary but can occur at the same time in different regions or at different times in the same region. Our objective is to (a) identify spatiotemporal patterns of variability of floods and droughts in NHP’s land surface hydrology (LSH); and (b) account for the spatiotemporal impacts of deficits and surpluses of water at the basin-scale. The hypothesis is that areas of influence and the associated duration of droughts and floods will be more sensitive to different LSH variables and state variables than to the statistical approaches used to analyze them. To test the present hypothesis we will use gridded observed (precipitation) and simulated LSH variables (runoff, baseflow, and soil moisture) on the Platte River Basin. Precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, and wind speed force the Variable infiltration Capacity model at 1/16^th degree resolution from 1950 to 2013. Drought indices based on percentiles estimated from Gamma, General Extreme Value, and Gumble distribution functions are estimated using daily observed and simulated variables for the domains and timespans mentioned above. Preliminary results using percentiles of soil moisture show that wetter sub-basins exhibit greater moisture changes than drier sub-basins during dry extremes. Results will contribute to improve predictability of extreme drought and flood events and their effects on water resources across scales.