Can nitrogen cycle feedbacks lead to runaway denitrification and deoxygenation of the ocean?

Abstract:

Over millennial timescales, the oceanic reservoir of fixed nitrogen (N) is regulated by a balance between N loss in sediments and low oxygen (O₂) waters, and N₂-fixation by diazotrophic phytoplankton. The two processes are coupled by selection for diazotrophs under N-limited conditions that arise from denitrification, although the spatial scale of this coupling is debated. A strong local coupling has been argued against because the export of newly fixed N would boost nearby denitrification rates, stimulating further N₂-fixation in overlying water, resulting in runaway N loss and deoxygenation of the ocean. Using a global ocean circulation model with a prognostic ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles, we show that no such runaway feedback arises. Even when the majority of N₂-fixation occurs directly above suboxic zones, N sources and sinks quickly reach a stable equilibrium without widespread N depletion. Taking a systems dynamics approach, we derive a “feedback factor” (f) for the interaction of N inputs and losses, which depends on the stoichiometry of diazotroph biomass, ventilation of the tropical thermocline, and upwelling rate of denitrified waters. Under modern conditions of ocean circulation and O₂ solubility, f is much lower than 1 – the value that separates stable and runaway amplification of a system response – and the oceanic N reservoir is remarkably insensitive to spatial proximity of N sources and sinks, as might accompany the alleviation of diazotroph Fe-limitation. Based on these parameters, we identify climatic conditions that might push the system into a runaway feedback regime, allowing for periods of catastrophic N loss and deoxygenation during Earth’s history.