SA12A-07:
Forecasting Solar UV & F10.7 with ADAPT
Monday, 15 December 2014: 11:40 AM
Carl J Henney, Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, Rachel A Hock, USAF/AFRL, Albuquerque, NM, United States, W. Alex Toussaint, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, United States, Alicia K. Schooley, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany, Charles Nickolos Arge, AFRL/RVBXS, Kirtland Afb, NM, United States and Stephen M White, Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Abstract:
A new method is reviewed here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F10.7, and selected bands of solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance, ranging from 0.1 to 175 nm, utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport) model. Initial results reveal a good correlation between the absolute value of the observed photospheric magnetic field and the observed F10.7 and selected UV bands. In Henney et al (2012), the observed F10.7 signal is found to correlate well with strong magnetic field regions. In addition, we find that observed integrated full-disk solar UV signals are correlated with weaker fields. By evolving solar magnetic maps forward 1 to 7 days with a flux transport model, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth-side solar magnetic field distribution used to predict the F10.7 flux and UV irradiance. The ADAPT model used in this work was developed with support by a grant from the AFOSR (Air Force Office of Scientific Research).
