GC53D-08:
Socio-Hydrologic Modeling: Characterizing the Dynamics of Coupled Human-Water Systems Using Natural Science Methods
Friday, 19 December 2014: 3:25 PM
Murugesu Sivapalan, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, IL, United States, Yasmina Elshafei, The University of Western Australia, School of Earth and Environment, Perth, Australia and Veena Srinivasan, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave, Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore, India
Abstract:
A challenging research puzzle in the research on sustainable water management in the Anthropocene is why some societies successfully recover from “ecological destruction” to transition to “successful adaptation” over decadal timescales, while others fail. We present a conceptual modeling framework to understand and characterize these transitions. In this way, we aim to capture the potential drivers of the desired shift towards achieving sustainability of socio-hydrological systems. This is done through a synthesis of detailed socio-hydrological analyses of four river basins in three continents, carried out using different quantitative socio-hydrologic models: Murrumbidgee River Basin in eastern Australia, Lake Toolibin Catchment in Western Australia, Tarim River Basin in Western China and Kissimmee River Basin, in south-east United States. The case studies are analysed using either place-based models designed specifically to mimic observed long-term socio-hydrologic trends, or generic conceptual models with foundations in diverse strands of literature including sustainability science and resilience theory. A comparative analysis of the four case studies reveals a commonality in the building blocks employed to model these socio-hydrologic systems; including water balance, economic, environmental and human-feedback components. Each model reveals varying interpretations of a common organising principle that could explain the shift between productive (socio-economic) and restorative (environmental) forces that was evident in each of these systems observed over a long time frame. The emergent principle is related to the essential drivers of the human feedback component and rests with a general formulation of human well-being, as reflected by both their economic and environmental well-being. It is envisaged that the understanding of the system drivers gained from such a comparative study would enable more targeted water management strategies that can be administered in developing basins to achieve overall sustainability.
