C42B-01:
Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Decadal Timescales
Thursday, 18 December 2014: 10:20 AM
Virginie Guemas1,2, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth3, Matthieu Chevallier2, Michel Déqué2, Francisco Doblas-Reyes1,4, Neven S Fuckar1, Danila Volpi1,5 and David Salas y Mélia2, (1)Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, (2)Météo-France Toulouse, Toulouse Cedex 01, France, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain, (5)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Abstract:
Sea ice stands as a major component of the climate system through its key impact on the water and energy budgets and it substantially impacts local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. The societal and economic perspectives of Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales have led to increasing efforts in the development of sea ice forecast systems. An overview of the potential sources of Arctic sea ice predictability on these timescales will be given. Then, current approaches to generate ensemble sea ice reconstructions and initialize climate predictions will be described. The performances over the satellite era of the EC-Earth and CNRM-CM coupled models in predicting the Arctic sea ice cover and its spatial characteristics on seasonal timescales will finally be presented.
