Identifying and Evaluating Possible Trigger Mechanisms for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Using Remote Sensing Satellite Data

Abstract:

Glacierized basins in high-altitude and mountainous areas, such as the Himalayas, have seen an increase in the number of glacial lakes over the years as a result of a changing climate. As the meltwater becomes more prevalent, the runoff can accumulate in a depression left behind by the receding glacier and can be bound by the walls of frontal and lateral moraines. These moraines, however, often are comprised of loose, unconsolidated sediment and can prove to be unstable dam structures for proglacial lakes. The factor of instability associated with the moraines poses a serious threat for failure and severe flooding. If the moraines were to be breached by the lake water, a phenomenon known as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) can occur, potentially putting lives and infrastructure in harm’s way. Consequently, this study examines the likelihood of a GLOF occurrence by analyzing potential trigger mechanisms associated with three proglacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Using ASTER satellite imagery, one lake from Nepal, India, and Bhutan have each been assessed for possible trigger mechanisms. Our results suggest that steep-sided moraines, rugged topography, unstable masses on the upper reaches of steep slopes, and smaller lakes perched high above can all be classified as possible trigger mechanisms for the areas of study. It is imperative to be able to successfully identify potential trigger mechanisms using satellite data so that further ground observations can be made and mitigation efforts can be incorporated where needed. As lakes continue to grow, so does the cause for concern for possible GLOFs. Glacial lake outburst floods are being studied more extensively now due to the greater number of glacial lakes in high-mountainous areas. It is vitally important to understand the dynamics of a GLOF, especially the potential trigger mechanisms associated with it.