Arctic Sea Ice : Trends, Stability and Variability

Abstract:

A stochastic Arctic sea-ice model is derived and analysed in detail to interpret the recent decay and associated variability of Arctic sea-ice under changes in radiative forcing.

The approach begins from a deterministic model of the heat flux balance through the air/sea/ice system, which uses observed monthly-averaged heat fluxes
to drive a time evolution of sea-ice thickness. This model reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of the ice cover and it is to this that stochastic noise--representing high frequency variability--is introduced.

The model takes the form of a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation. The value of such a model is that it provides a relatively simple framework to examine the role of noise in the basic nonlinear interactions at play as transitions in the state of the ice cover (e.g., from perennial to seasonal) are approached. Moreover, the stability and the noise conspire to underlie the inter annual variability and how that variability changes as one approaches the deterministic bifurcations in the system.