NG41B:
Stochastic Modeling and Complex System Approaches to Nonlinear Geophysical Systems I

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Chairs:  Adam H Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, Reik V Donner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, Paul David Williams, University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom and Cecile Penland, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Conveners:  Adam H Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Co-conveners:  Cecile Penland, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Paul David Williams, University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom and Reik V Donner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
OSPA Liaisons:  Adam H Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

8:00 AM
NG41B-01
 
Arctic Sea Ice : Trends, Stability and Variability
Woosok Moon, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom and John S. Wettlaufer, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
8:15 AM
NG41B-02
 
Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization of Cumulus Convection Using Cellular Automata in a Meso-Scale Ensemble Prediction System.
Lisa Bengtsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
8:30 AM
NG41B-03
 
The Effects of Explicit Atmospheric Convection at High CO2
Eli Tziperman1, Nathan Arnold1,2, Mark Branson2, Melissa A Burt2, Dorian S Abbot3, Zhiming Kuang1 and David A Randall4, (1)Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
8:45 AM
NG41B-04
 
Threshold Models for Rainfall and Convection: Deterministic Versus Stochastic Trigger
Scott Hottovy and Samuel N Stechmann, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
9:00 AM
NG41B-05
 
A Data-based Low-dimensional Stochastic Model of the NGRIP delta-O18 with Built-in Delays
Dmitri A Kondrashov1, Honghu Liu1, Mickael Chekroun1, Anders Svensson2, Denis-Didier Rousseau3 and Michael Ghil1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Atmos. Sci, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Centre for Ice and Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark, (3)CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France
9:15 AM
NG41B-06
 
An Efficient Perturbed Parameter Scheme in the Lorenz System for Quantifying Model Uncertainty
Gino Chen, Ben P Kirtman and Mohamed Iskandarani, University of Miami - RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States
9:30 AM
NG41B-07
 
Analyzing Global Climate System Using Graph Based Anomaly Detection
Kamalika Das1, Saurabh Agrawal2, Gowtham Atluri2, Stefan Liess2, Michael Steinbach2 and Vipin Kumar2, (1)University of California Santa Cruz, UARC, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States
9:45 AM
NG41B-08
 
A novel method for the detection of persistent and recurrent climatic regimes as almost invariants of the transfer operator
Alexis Tantet, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, 3584, Netherlands and Hendrik A Dijkstra, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
 
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