Linking Satellite Derived Land Surface Temperature with Cholera: A Case Study for South Sudan

Abstract:

A sudden onset of cholera in South Sudan, in April 2014 in Northern Bari in Juba town resulted in more than 400 cholera cases after four weeks of initial outbreak with a case of fatality rate of CFR 5.4%. The total number of reported cholera cases for the period of April to July, 2014 were 5,141 including 114 deaths. With the limited efficacy of cholera vaccines, it is necessary to develop mechanisms to predict cholera occurrence and thereafter devise intervention strategies for mitigating impacts of the disease. Hydroclimatic processes, primarily precipitation and air temperature are related to epidemic and episodic outbreak of cholera. However, due to coarse resolution of both datasets, it is not possible to precisely locate the geographical location of disease. Here, using Land Surface Temperature (LST) from MODIS sensors, we have developed an algorithm to identify regions susceptible for cholera. Conditions for occurrence of cholera were detectable at least one month in advance in South Sudan and were statistically sensitive to hydroclimatic anomalies of land surface and air temperature, and precipitation. Our results indicate significant spatial and temporal averaging required to infer usable information from LST over South Sudan. Preliminary results that geographically location of cholera outbreak was identifiable within 1km resolution of the LST data.