Empirical Determination of the Human Influence on Climate Change

Thursday, 18 December 2014
Austin Patrick Hope, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Timothy P Canty, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, Nora R Mascioli, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Ross J Salawitch, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
We use a model of global climate to quantify the role of human activity on global mean temperature. We show that humans have been responsible for about 0.12°C/decade warming during the past three decades. Our presentation will focus on comparison of this empirical determination of the global warming signal (GWS) to the GWS inferred from GCM output maintained by the CMIP5 archive. We will also compare to other published estimates of GWS. Finally, we show the GWS may have persisted unabated during the time of the so-called temperature hiatus (1998 to 2012), provided the CRU4 temperature record is corrected for recent under-sampling at high latitudes and Africa.