GC41F:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations I Posters

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 8:00 AM-12:20 PM
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Maoyi Huang, Pacific NW Nat'l Lab-Atmos Sci, Richland, WA, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Edwin P Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, United States
Primary Conveners:  Maoyi Huang, Pacific NW Nat'l Lab-Atmos Sci, Richland, WA, United States
Co-conveners:  Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, United States, Linda O Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States and Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

0641
 
Shale Gas Boom or Bust? Estimating US and Global Economically Recoverable Resources
Robert J Brecha1,2, Jérôme Hilaire1 and Nico Bauer1, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of Dayton, Physics, Dayton, OH, United States
0642
 
Empirical Determination of the Human Influence on Climate Change
Austin Patrick Hope, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Timothy P Canty, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, Nora R Mascioli, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Ross J Salawitch, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
0643
 
Sampling Biases in Datasets of Historical Mean Air Temperature over Land
Kaicun Wang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
0644
 
Uncertainty Quantification for Characterizing Spatial Tail Dependence under Statistical Framework
Soyoung Jeon1, Christopher J Paciorek2, Mr. Prabhat1, Surendra Byna1, William Collins1 and Michael F Wehner1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States
0645
 
Generating future climate time series in semi-arid regions for hydrologic modeling
Cristian Chadwick1, Sebastian Vicuna2 and Jorge A Gironas2, (1)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
0646
 
Objective Tuning of Model Parameters in CAM5 Across Different Spatial Resolutions
Vera Bulaevskaya and Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
0647
 
Complex Empiricism and the Quantification of Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Reconstructions
Kimberly C Brumble, Indiana University Bloomington, Department of History and Philosophy of Scie nce, Bloomington, IN, United States; Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science, Bloomington, IN, United States
0648
 
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission
Kate Ricke and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC, United States
0649
 
The Social Network of Tracer Variations and O(100) Uncertain Photochemical Parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model
Donald D Lucas1, Montiago Labute1, Kenny Chowdhary2, Bert Debusschere3 and Philip J Cameron-Smith1, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States
0650
 
Using Runoff Data to Calibrate the Community Land Model
Jaideep Ray1, Zhangshuan Hou2, Maoyi Huang3 and Laura Swiler1, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Pac NW Nat'l Lab-Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pacific NW Nat'l Lab-Atmos Sci, Richland, WA, United States
0651
 
Assessing the Problem Formulation in an Integrated Assessment Model: Implications for Climate Policy Decision-Support
Gregory George Garner, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, Patrick M. Reed, Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States and Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
0652
 
Exploring regional patterns of uncertainty over precipitation change among CMIP5 models using empirical mode techniques, with a focus on the midlatitude Pacific storm track region
Baird Langenbrunner1, J David Neelin1, Benjamin R Lintner2 and Bruce T Anderson3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Rutgers, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (3)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
0653
 
Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios
Julie A Vano1, John B Kim2, David E Rupp1 and Philip Mote1, (1)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)USFS, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States
0654
 
Assessing the impacts of using energy balance models to estimate probabililty distributions of equilibrium climate sensitivity
Chris E Forest1, Ashley Warner2, Klaus Keller2 and Andrei P Sokolov3, (1)Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, (3)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States
0655
 
Estimates of climate system properties based on recent climate records up to 2012
Alex G Libardoni, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States, Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States and Andrei P Sokolov, MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States
0656
 
Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Climate Models
Cosmin Safta1, Khachik Sargsyan2, Bert Debusschere3, Habib N Najm2, Daniel M Ricciuto4 and Peter E Thornton4, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Oakland, CA, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
0657
 
Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model
Yoshihiko Iseri, Akito Iwasaki, Chihiro Miyazaki and Shinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
0658
 
Biogeophysical controls on land-atmosphere fluxes in the Community Earth System Model
Daniel M Ricciuto, Jiafu Mao and Xiaoying Shi, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
0659
 
Quantifying Uncertainties in Global and North American Regional Climate Change Projections using the Climateprediction.net Multi-Thousand Member Global Climate Model Perturbed Physics Ensemble
Derek H Rosendahl, South Central Climate Science Center, Norman, OK, United States and David J Karoly, University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, Australia
0660
 
From Land Use to Land Cover: Restoring the Afforestation Signal in a Coupled Integrated Assessment - Earth System Model and the Implications for CMIP5 RCP Simulations
Alan V Di Vittorio1, Louise P Chini2, Ben P Bond-Lamberty3, Jiafu Mao4, Xiaoying Shi4, John Truesdale5, Anthony Craig5, Katherine V Calvin3, Andrew D Jones1, William Collins1, James Edmonds3, George C Hurtt2, Peter E Thornton4 and Allison M Thomson3, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Independent contractor with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
0661
 
An Examination of Sensitivities in Uncertainty Quantification for Future Climate Projections over India.
Ram Singh, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India and Krishna M Achutarao, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, 110, India
0662
 
Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA
Selina Jahan Sumi, Marzia Tamanna, Bogdan Chivoiu and Emad H Habib, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, United States
0663
 
Applicability of surrogate-based MCMC-Bayesian inversion of CLM at flux tower sites with various climate and soil conditions
Zhangshuan Hou1, Jaideep Ray2, Maoyi Huang3 and Laura Swiler2, (1)Pac NW Nat'l Lab-Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Pacific NW Nat'l Lab-Atmos Sci, Richland, WA, United States
0664
 
Uncertainty Analysis of CMIP5 Future Projection in Global Water Cycle
Satoshi Watanabe1, Hyungjun KIM1, Yukiko Hirabayashi1 and Shinjiro Kanae2, (1)The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
0665
 
Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes
Ali Ahmadalipour1, Arun Rana1 and Hamid Moradkhani2, (1)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Portland State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland, OR, United States
0666
 
Storm Transposition- a Tool for Climate Change Adaptation
Kenneth W Potter, Nicholas Hayden and David Liebl, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States
0667
 
Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts
Levi D Brekke1, Martyn P Clark2, Ethan D Gutmann3, Naoki Mizukami3, Pablo A Mendoza4, Roy Rasmussen5, Kyoko Ikeda5, Tommy Pruitt1, J R Arnold6 and Balaji Rajagopalan7, (1)U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States, (7)Univ Colorado, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
0668
 
Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change
Peter Carter, Climate Emergency Institute, Washington, DC, United States
0669
 
Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis
Julie Jebeile and Isabelle Drouet, University Paris 4, Paris, France
0670
 
Uncertainty in stormwater drainage adaptation: what matters and how much is too much?
Latham J Stack1, Michael H Simpson2, Trisha Moore3, John S Gulliver4, Robert Roseen5, Lois Eberhart6, Joel B Smith7, James Gruber2, Leslie Yetka4, Robert Wood8 and Colin Lawson9, (1)Syntectic International, LLC, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Antioch University New England, Environmental Studies, Keene, NH, United States, (3)Kansas State University, Civil Engineeering, Manhattan, KS, United States, (4)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (5)Geosyntec Consultants Acton, Acton, MA, United States, (6)City of Minneapolis, Department of Public Works, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (7)Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO, United States, (8)Lake Sunapee Protective Association, Sunapee, NH, United States, (9)Trout Unlimited, Portsmouth, NH, United States
 
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