Challenges to Space Weather Forecasting and Data-Driven Modeling of the Sun Focused on January 2014 I

Friday, 19 December 2014: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Chairs:  Rebekah M Evans1, Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla2, Aimee Ann Norton3 and J Todd Hoeksema3, (1)NASA GSFC/ORAU, Greenbelt, MD, United States(2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States(3)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Primary Conveners:  J Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Aimee Ann Norton, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

8:00 AM
An Overview of the 7 January 2014 X-Class Flare-CME and Space Weather Predictions
David F Webb, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
8:15 AM
Data-driven coronal evolutionary model of active region 11944.
Maria Kazachenko, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
8:30 AM
Simulating CME Eruptions from Active Regions
Ward Manchester and Bart van der Holst, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
8:45 AM
The Great "Non-Event" of 7 January 2014: Challenges in CME Arrival Time and Geomagnetic Storm Strength Prediction
M. Leila Mays1,2, Barbara J Thompson1, Lan Jian3, Rebekah M Evans1,4, Neel Savani5, Dusan Odstrcil6, Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla1,2 and Ian G Richardson1, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, (3)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Oak Ridge Associated Universities Inc., Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States, (6)George Mason University Fairfax, Computational and Data Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
9:00 AM
The CME event on 07 January 2014: Why was it a geomagnetic dud?
Robin C Colaninno, Naval Research Lab DC, Washington, DC, United States, Nour-Eddine Raouafi, Applied Physics Laboratory Johns Hopkins, Laurel, MD, United States, Angelos Vourlidas, Naval Research Laboratory, Alexandria, VA, United States, Guillermo Stenborg, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, David Lario, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States and Viacheslav G Merkin, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, United States
9:15 AM
The Nature of CME-flare Associated Coronal Dimming
Jianxia Cheng, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China, Jiong Qiu, Montana State University Bozeman, Bozeman, MT, United States and Shane Sullivan, Northern Illinois University, Physics Department, DeKalb, IL, United States
9:30 AM
A NOAA/SWPC Perspective on Space Weather Forecasts That Fail
Douglas Alan Biesecker, NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States
9:45 AM
Improvement of Space Weather Forecasting in Solar Cycle 24
Nariaki Nitta, Lockheed Martin STAR Labs, A021S, Palo Alto, CA, United States