H14F:
Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Models and Observations and Their Impacts on Decision Making Related to Geological, Hydrological, and Environmental Applications I

Monday, 15 December 2014: 4:00 PM-6:00 PM
Chairs:  Ray G Anderson, USDA-ARS, U.S. Salinity Laboratory, Riverside, CA, United States and Velimir V Vesselinov, LANL, Santa Fe, NM, United States
Primary Conveners:  Ray G Anderson, USDA Agricultural Research Service Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
Co-conveners:  Velimir V Vesselinov, LANL, Santa Fe, NM, United States, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States and Todd H Skaggs, US Salinity Lab, Riverside, CA, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Todd H Skaggs, US Salinity Lab, Riverside, CA, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

4:00 PM
H14F-01
 
Addressing Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Model Prediction Errors
Jesus Carrera, IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain and Maria Pool, National Center for Groundwater Research and Training, Adelaide, SA, Australia
4:15 PM
H14F-02
 
The Elephant in the Room: Spatial Heterogeneity and the Uncertainty of Measurements and Models
Joseph G Alfieri1, William P Kustas1, John H Prueger2, Nurit Agam3, Christopher M U Neale4 and Steven R Evett5, (1)USDA ARS HRSL, Beltsvillle, MD, United States, (2)USDA ARS NLAE, Ames, IA, United States, (3)Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Sed-Boker, Israel, (4)University of Nebraska, Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute, Lincoln, NE, United States, (5)USDA ARS, Bushland, TX, United States
4:30 PM
H14F-03
 
A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
Rafael Munoz-Carpena1, Stuart J Muller1, Maria Chu2, Greg A Kiker1 and Stephen G Perz1, (1)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
4:45 PM
H14F-04
 
What Do We Mean By Sensitivity Analysis? The Need For A Comprehensive Characterization Of Sensitivity In Earth System Models
Saman Razavi, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
5:00 PM
H14F-05
 
Quantifying Uncertainty in Physics-Based Models with Measure Theory
Troy Butler, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, United States
5:15 PM
H14F-06
 
Hierarchical Mixture of Experts and Diagnostic Modeling Approach to Reduce Hydrologic Model Structural Uncertainty
Edom Melesse Moges1, Yonas Demissie1 and Hong-Yi Li2, (1)Washington State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pac NW National Lab, Richland, WA, United States
5:30 PM
H14F-07
 
A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates – how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?
Ashish Sharma, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, Bellie Sivakumar, University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Rajeshwar Mehrotra, University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, Australia
5:45 PM
H14F-08
 
Model-data Synthesis of Complex CPU-intensive System Models: Application to Geophysics, Hydrology and Ecology
Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
 
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