H13N-02
Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions’ Ability to Support Flood Forecasting
Monday, 14 December 2015: 13:55
3012 (Moscone West)
Patrick M Reed, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, Nathaniel Chaney, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Jonathan D Herman, University of California Davis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Davis, CA, United States, Eric F Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Matthew P Ferringer, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA, United States
Abstract:
This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale “many-objective” global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated global water cycle observatory long sought by the World Climate Research Programme, which has to date eluded the world’s space agencies.
