A11M-0231
The Health Impacts of Energy Policy Pathways in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A Total Exposure Assessment

Monday, 14 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Lawson Andrew Hill1, Yumchindorj Damdinsuren2, Purevdorj B Olkhanud3, Kirk R Smith1, Jay Robert Turner4, Rufus Edwards5 and Munkhtuul Odsuren3, (1)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Social Impact, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, (3)Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, School of Public Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, (4)Washington University in St Louis, St. Louis, MO, United States, (5)University of California Irvine, Epidemiology, Irvine, CA, United States
Abstract:
Ulaanbaatar is home to nearly half of Mongolia’s 2.8 million residents. The city’s rapid growth, frigid winters, valley topography, and reliance on coal-fired stoves have led to some of the worst winter pollution levels in the world. To better understand this issue, we modeled integrated PM2.5exposures and related health impacts for various city-wide heating policies through 2024. This assessment is one of the first to employ a total exposure approach and results of the 2014 Comparative Risk Assessments of the Global Burden of Disease Project (CRA/GBD) in a policy-relevant energy study.

Emissions related to heating, traffic, and power generation were considered under Business as Usual, Moderate Improvement, and Max Improvement scenarios. Calibrated outdoor models were combined with indoor models, local infiltration and time activity estimates, and demographic projections to estimate PM2.5exposures in 2014 and 2024. Indoor exposures were assigned by heating type, home type, and smoking status; outdoor exposures were assigned through geocoding. Population average annual exposures were calculated and applied to local disease rates and integrated exposure-response curves (2014 CRA/GBD) to arrive at annual projections of premature deaths and DALYs.

We estimate 2014 annual average exposures at 68 µg/m3, dictated almost exclusively by indoor winter exposures. Under current trends, annual exposures increase 10% to 75 µg/m3 in 2024. This is in stark contrast to the moderate and max improvement scenarios, which lead to 2024 annual exposures that are 31%, and 68% lower, respectively. Under the Moderate scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 26% and 22%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Under the Max scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 71% and 66%, respectively, from 2014. SHS becomes a major contributor as emissions from other sectors decrease. Reductions are dominated by cardiovascular and lower respiratory diseases in children.

<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract >>