Degrees of Isolation: The Impact of Climate Change on the Dispersal and Population Genetic Structure of Two Antarctic Fish Species

Understanding the key drivers of larval dispersal and population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the genetic structure and resilience of populations. Small, isolated and fragmented communities will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant, and with a frequent exchange of members. Using a ‘seascape genetics’ approach, combining oceanographic modelling and genetic analyses, we have elucidated the fundamental roles of oceanographic transport and planktonic duration on the connectivity and population genetic structure of two Antarctic fish species with contrasting early life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. Here, we extend these analyses to consider the impact of rising sea temperatures due to climate change on planktonic dispersal and population connectivity. Using a theoretical approach, the effect of increased water temperatures on mortality rates and species-specific egg and larval phase durations has been incorporated into the models, and the relative impact of these climate-related influences on connectivity and population genetic structure has been investigated. Here we present the key findings of our research and consider the roles of early life history and oceanography in the response of fragmented fish populations to climate change.