Modeling Global Relationships Between Climate and Scyphozoan Jellyfish Blooms

Scyphozoan jellyfish have a complex lifecycle that involves alternation between a sexually reproducing medusa stage and a benthic, asexually reproducing polyp. Elevated jellyfish concentrations, or blooms, are a natural feature of healthy pelagic ecosystems, but it has been suggested that the frequency and magnitude of these blooms may increase globally as a result of anthropogenic changes such as overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. It has been difficult to substantiate this hypothesis, however, due to insufficient long-term datasets and limited life cycle data, particularly for the polyp stage. Polyp mortality is considered to be more important than medusa mortality for determining the biomass of the medusa population. We have developed a population model that incorporates both benthic and pelagic life history stages to better understand controls on jellyfish distributions their response to climate variability and change. The model tracks cohorts of both life stages with temperature and/or consumption driven relationships for growth, reproduction and mortality. The model was forced with a time-series of temperature and zooplankton biomass from three locations: Southampton Estuary, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black Sea and compared against co-located long-term (~20 years) near monthly samples of jellyfish biomass. The model reproduces seasonal cycles and average medusa biomass at each location. Medusa biomass is positively correlated with increased temperature and food availability, and was more sensitive to changes in polyp mortality than medusa mortality – confirming the importance of the benthic polyp generation in regulating jellyfish bloom size. We are presently studying drivers of inter-annual variability at these sites before integration with global simulations.