Improving the Arctic ice edge forecasts by assimilating high resolution sea ice concentration products in the U.S. Navy’s ice forecasting systems

Pamela G Posey1, E Joseph Metzger1, Alan J Wallcraft1, David A Hebert1, Richard Allard1, Ole Martin Smedstad2, Michael Phelps3, Florence M Fetterer4, Scott Stewart5, Walter Meier6 and Sean Helfrich7, (1)Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (3)Jacobs Technology Inc., Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Exploratory Thinking, Longmont, CO, United States, (6)National Snow and Ice Data Center, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)National Ice Center, Suitland, MD, United States
Abstract:
This study presents the improvement in ice edge error within the U.S. Navy’s operational sea ice forecast systems gained by assimilating high horizontal resolution satellite-derived ice concentration products. Since the late 1980’s, U.S. Navy ice forecast systems have assimilated near real-time sea ice concentration derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI and then SSMIS). The resolution of the SSMI derived product was approximately the same as the previous operational ice forecast system (25 km). As the sea ice forecast model resolution increased over time, the need for higher horizontal resolution observational data grew. In 2013, the Navy’s Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) went into operations with a horizontal resolution of approximately 3.5 km at the North Pole. A method of blending ice concentration observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) with a sea ice mask produced by the National Ice Center has been developed, resulting in a 4 km ice concentration product. In this study, ACNFS was initialized with this newly developed high resolution blended ice concentration product, and the daily ice edge locations from model hindcast simulations were compared against independent observed ice edge locations. A second evaluation assimilating the new blended sea ice concentration product into the pre-operational Navy Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.1). This study describes the technique used to create the blended sea ice concentration product and the significant improvements in ice edge forecasting in both of the Navy’s sea ice forecasting systems.
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