Drivers of the Seasonal Carbon Cycle in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska

The Coastal Gulf of Alaska serves as a significant carbon sink annually, but varies seasonally from net carbon efflux in winter, to net carbon uptake from spring through fall. This significant uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ combined with the naturally cold, low calcium carbonate surface waters is expected to accelerate ocean acidification. Observational evidence has already detected subsurface aragonite undersaturation, likely resulting from carbon remineralization of sinking organic matter. Other processes such as storm-induced vertical mixing, glacial runoff, temperature change, and nutrient supply can further modify the carbon cycle. Improving knowledge of these seasonal processes is critical for the region’s fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services and can be adversely impacted by sub-optimal aragonite saturation conditions. We use a regional model of the Coastal Gulf of Alaska coupled to an ecosystem model with full carbonate chemistry to investigate the physical and biogeochemical mechanisms that drive the seasonal carbon cycle. Boundary conditions are set from the coarser Northeast Pacific model, with alkalinity and carbon concentrations determined from empirical relationships with salinity. Model output from a 2009 hindcast simulation is compared to observations of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations for model verification and to elucidate seasonal mechanisms.