Effect of Extremes: How El Niño Events Affect Reef Fish Population Connectivity in the Hawaiian Islands

As a result of climate change, scientists predict stronger, more frequent El Niño events in the future. These events in the Central Equatorial Pacific cause increased sea surface temperatures (SST), a depressed thermocline, and decreased primary production. The oceanographic effects in the Hawaiian Archipelago located in the Subtropical North Pacific, are not equally well understood, and have shown both increased and decreased SST and primary production during El Niño events. Marine larval fish development rates can be affected by factors such as food availability and temperature, thus oceanographic changes caused by El Niño can potentially alter larval dispersal patterns throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago, affecting regional population connectivity. Using a two dimensional Lagrangian particle dispersal model coupled with high resolution Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) currents for the Hawaiian Archipelago we are able to model annual settlement probabilities and self-recruitment, important metrics for understanding population dynamics and connectivity. Preliminary data comparing modeled dispersal during the 1997-98 El Niño with four years of normal state oceanographic conditions (2011-2014), showed an increase in total settlement during the El Niño years for the North Western Hawaiian Islands, and a decreased settlement success for the Main Hawaiian Islands. Self-recruitment across the archipelago was lower during El Niño and the distance the successful settlers traveled was greater, indicating that El Niño may be playing an important role in long distance dispersal and genetic exchange between distant sites not otherwise connected. We see a much greater connectivity between the Hawaiian Archipelago and Johnnston Atoll during the El Niño event, with a significant increase of larval exchange in both directions. Since these ecologically rare but extreme events can have a disproportionate influence on dispersal, it's important to understand how connectivity is affected in order to manage for diverse coral reefs in the future.