Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Model Stochastic Ensembles

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction remains to be a major challenge. Although pre-TC sea surface temperature (SST) is a key predictor of the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TCs, TC intensity is strongly controlled in part by coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. This study explores the predictobility limit of TC intensity using the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM). The atmosphere, wave, and ocean components are WRF model, University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM), and HYCOM. We use stochastic ensemble coupled model simulations to access TC intensity predictability and forecast skills.