A52A:
Understanding Air-Sea Coupling in Tropical Cyclones for Improving Model Intensity Forecasts I


Session ID#: 11376

Session Description:
Improvements in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts produced by coupled prediction models have lagged behind improvements in track forecasts. Accurate intensity prediction requires that coupled models correctly simulate the evolution of air-sea heat and momentum fluxes directly beneath storms. Limited evaluation performed to date demonstrates that existing coupled prediction models contain significant errors and biases in simulated air-sea fluxes, and in the responses of the upper-ocean and the atmospheric planetary boundary layer to these fluxes, that can degrade the quality of intensity forecasts. Papers are solicited that describe the supporting science and methods required to evaluate and improve the quality of coupled TC intensity forecasts, particularly with regards to improving the representation of key ocean-wave-atmosphere physical processes within the models. Particular emphasis is placed on physical processes acting within the under-sampled inner-core region of storms. Scientific topics of interest include air-sea interface dynamics, upper-ocean dynamics, atmospheric planetary boundary layer dynamics, air-sea flux parameterization improvements, and methods to improve model initialization. Papers describing the observational requirements to achieve these goals, with respect to both the optimal use of existing observations and the design of future observing programs, are particularly encouraged.
Primary Chair:  George R Halliwell Jr, NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Chairs:  Hyun-Sook Kim, NOAA/NCWCP, EMC, College Park, MD, United States and Vijay Tallapragada, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Moderators:  Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States and George R Halliwell Jr, NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  George R Halliwell Jr, NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Index Terms:

4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4262 Ocean observing systems [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4504 Air/sea interactions [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4572 Upper ocean and mixed layer processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • OD - Ocean Observing and Data Management
  • PO - Physical Oceanography/Ocean Circulation
  • TE - Tropical and Equatorial Environments
  • TP - Turbulent Processes

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A52A-01
Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative (90170)
Hyun-Sook Kim1, George R Halliwell Jr2, Vijay Tallapragada3, Peter G Black4, Nicolas Bond5, Sue Chen6, Joseph Cione7, Meghan F Cronin8, Isaac Ginis9, Bin Liu1, Laury Miller10, Steven R Jayne11, Elizabeth Sanabia12, Lynn K Shay13, Eric Uhlhorn14 and Lin Zhu1, (1)IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States, (3)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, (5)University of Washington, United States, (6)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, (7)Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, (8)NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States, (9)Univ Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, United States, (10)NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Reserch, Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, College Park, Maryland, United States, (11)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (12)US Naval Academy, Department of Oceanography, Annapolis, MD, United States, (13)RSMAS/University of Miami, Department of Ocean Sciences, Miami, FL, United States, (14)Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL, United States
A52A-02
Assessment of Surface Drag Coefficient Parametrizations based on Observation and WRF Model Simulation (88433)
Funing Li, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China, Jinbao Song, Zhejiang University, Ocean College, Zhoushan, China, Hailun He, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanographic Administration of China, Hangzhou, China, Shuang Li, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Institute of Physical Oceanography, Zhoushan, China and Shoude Guan, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves (KLOCAW), Qingdao, China
A52A-03
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Induced Ocean Response to Wind Stress (92114)
Sue Chen1, James D Doyle2, Jayaram Veeramony3, William Rogers4, Yalin Fan5, Paul Martin6 and Timothy J Campbell4, (1)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)NRL, Monterey, CA, United States, (3)US Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (5)US Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, LA, United States, (6)Naval Research Laboratory, Oceanography Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
A52A-04
Upper-Ocean Temperature Observations Obtained during Tasked Hurricane Reconnaissance Missions: A Review of Impacts on Air-Sea Coupled Hurricane Model Predictions (91969)
Elizabeth Sanabia, US Naval Academy, Department of Oceanography, Annapolis, MD, United States, Steven R Jayne, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Peter G Black, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, Sue Chen, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States and James A Cummings, Naval Research Lab, Monterey, CA, United States
A52A-05
OSSE Assessment of Ocean Observing System Enhancements to Improve Coupled Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (87134)
George R Halliwell Jr1, Michael F Mehari2, Ricardo M. Domingues3, Vassiliki Kourafalou4, Robert M Atlas1, HeeSook Kang4 and Matthieu Le Henaff5, (1)NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Miami, NOAA/AOML/PhOD, Miami, FL, United States, (3)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (4)University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States, (5)NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, PhOD, Miami, FL, United States
A52A-06
Revisiting Sea State Dependent Surface Fluxes Parameterisations in a Fully Coupled Forecast System with Emphasis on Tropical Cyclone (92696)
Jean Raymond Bidlot, Kristian Mogensen, Linus Magnusson and Peter A.E.M Janssen, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
A52A-07
Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Model Stochastic Ensembles (93858)
Shuyi S Chen, Milan Curcic and Falko Judt, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States
A52A-08
Impacts of Ocean Coupling on HWRF Forecasts for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Basin in 2015 (90095)
Bin Liu1, Hyun-Sook Kim1, Vijay Tallapragada2, Lin Zhu1, Weiguo Wang1, Keqin Wu1, Samuel Trahan1 and Zhan Zhang1, (1)IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, (2)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
See more of: Air-sea Interactions and Upper Ocean Processes