PC42A:
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity, Predictability, and Impacts II


Session ID#: 36855

Session Description:
The last three boreal winters in the tropical Pacific have exhibited an unlikely and confounding sequence of ENSO states. In the winter of 2014/15, a previously heralded extreme El Nio resulted in only a limited basin-wide warming. This was followed by an extreme El Nio event in the winter of 2015/16, which, however, did not have the strong eastern Pacific warming characteristic of previous extreme events. Also, unlike previous extreme El Nio events, a weaker than expected La Nia followed in 2016 accompanied by an intense warming near the coast of South America (Coastal El Nio) during the 2017 winter. In addition to the unexpected variability during these years, the impacts of ENSO in some remote locations deviated from expectations. These challenges highlight the need for a continued study of ENSO diversity, including its origin, predictability, global impacts, and interactions with anthropogenic climate change. We welcome observational, model, and paleo studies that focus on the challenges brought to light by the recent ENSO sequence, as well as studies of longer-term, multi-decadal ENSO variability, impacts of climate change on ENSO, and general ENSO dynamics.
Primary Chair:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Co-chairs:  Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA /ESRL, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Moderators:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA /ESRL, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Cross-Topics:
  • AI - Air-Sea Interactions
  • MM - Microbiology and Molecular Ecology
  • PL - Physical Oceanography: Mesoscale and Larger
  • RS - Regional Studies

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Linking Two Distinct Onset Dynamics to ENSO Diversity (307561)
Shih-Wei Fang, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Jin-Yi Yu, Univ California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity (320195)
Erin Thomas, University of Wisconsin Madison, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI, United States, Daniel Vimont, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Cecile Penland, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Identyfing sub-seasonal wind events and their effects on ENSO SSTA development: Impacts of combining moored buoy and scatterometer winds (326842)
Andrew M Chiodi, University of Washington Seattle Campus, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States
The changing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific under the warming climate (316505)
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA, CPC, United States and Jin-Ho Yoon, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
The South Pacific Oscillation and Its Potential Role in ENSO Predictability (318469)
Jason C Furtado, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States and Yujia You, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
The South Pacific Meridional Mode and its role in the tropical Pacific interannual-to-decadal variability: Observation and Models (315421)
Yujia You and Jason C Furtado, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States

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