PC41A:
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity, Predictability, and Impacts I


Session ID#: 36902

Session Description:
The last three boreal winters in the tropical Pacific have exhibited an unlikely and confounding sequence of ENSO states. In the winter of 2014/15, a previously heralded extreme El Nio resulted in only a limited basin-wide warming. This was followed by an extreme El Nio event in the winter of 2015/16, which, however, did not have the strong eastern Pacific warming characteristic of previous extreme events. Also, unlike previous extreme El Nio events, a weaker than expected La Nia followed in 2016 accompanied by an intense warming near the coast of South America (Coastal El Nio) during the 2017 winter. In addition to the unexpected variability during these years, the impacts of ENSO in some remote locations deviated from expectations. These challenges highlight the need for a continued study of ENSO diversity, including its origin, predictability, global impacts, and interactions with anthropogenic climate change. We welcome observational, model, and paleo studies that focus on the challenges brought to light by the recent ENSO sequence, as well as studies of longer-term, multi-decadal ENSO variability, impacts of climate change on ENSO, and general ENSO dynamics.
Primary Chair:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Co-chairs:  Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Moderators:  Kim M Cobb, Brown Univeristy, Providence, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States and Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Cross-Topics:
  • AI - Air-Sea Interactions
  • MM - Microbiology and Molecular Ecology
  • PL - Physical Oceanography: Mesoscale and Larger
  • RS - Regional Studies

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

El Niño, El Único (309657)
Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
An adjusted ENSO ocean energetics framework based on observational wind power in the tropical Pacific (313829)
Keri Kodama, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States and Natalie Burls, George Mason University, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
The Influence of Mean State Changes on ENSO During the Mid-Holocene: Insights from Coral Records and an Isotope-Enabled GCM (326299)
Alyssa R Atwood, University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States, Kim M Cobb, Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, John C H Chiang, University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, United States, Clay Richard Tabor, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Pamela R Grothe, University of Mary Washington, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Fredericksburg, United States, Hussein R Sayani, Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, John Richard Southon, Univ California, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States, R Lawrence Edwards, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, Hai Cheng, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xian, China, Daniel Deocampo, Georgia State University, Department of Geosciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, Nicholas Thomas Hitt, Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Tianran Chen, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Holocene ENSO variability in the southwest Pacific (321818)
Thierry Correge, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, France and Pacmedy consortium
Definition of Extreme El Niño and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Niño Frequency (308243)
Guojian Wang1,2, Wenju Cai1,3, Agus Santoso4,5, Xiaopei Lin6 and Lixin Wu7, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (3)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (4)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (5)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO, Hobart, Australia, (6)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (7)Ocean University of China, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Qingdao, China
Tropical variability under greenhouse warming: what is the impact of model biases (308501)
Wenju Cai, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, Agus Santoso, Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO, Hobart, Australia, Guojian Wang, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia and Lixin Wu, Ocean University of China, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Qingdao, China

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