PC41A:
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity, Predictability, and Impacts I


Session ID#: 36902

Session Description:
The last three boreal winters in the tropical Pacific have exhibited an unlikely and confounding sequence of ENSO states. In the winter of 2014/15, a previously heralded extreme El Nio resulted in only a limited basin-wide warming. This was followed by an extreme El Nio event in the winter of 2015/16, which, however, did not have the strong eastern Pacific warming characteristic of previous extreme events. Also, unlike previous extreme El Nio events, a weaker than expected La Nia followed in 2016 accompanied by an intense warming near the coast of South America (Coastal El Nio) during the 2017 winter. In addition to the unexpected variability during these years, the impacts of ENSO in some remote locations deviated from expectations. These challenges highlight the need for a continued study of ENSO diversity, including its origin, predictability, global impacts, and interactions with anthropogenic climate change. We welcome observational, model, and paleo studies that focus on the challenges brought to light by the recent ENSO sequence, as well as studies of longer-term, multi-decadal ENSO variability, impacts of climate change on ENSO, and general ENSO dynamics.
Primary Chair:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Co-chairs:  Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA /ESRL, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Moderators:  Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA /ESRL, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Cross-Topics:
  • AI - Air-Sea Interactions
  • MM - Microbiology and Molecular Ecology
  • PL - Physical Oceanography: Mesoscale and Larger
  • RS - Regional Studies

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

El Niño, El Único (309657)
Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
An adjusted ENSO ocean energetics framework based on observational wind power in the tropical Pacific (313829)
Keri Kodama, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States and Natalie Burls, George Mason University, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
The Influence of Mean State Changes on ENSO During the Mid-Holocene: Insights from Coral Records and an Isotope-Enabled GCM (326299)
Alyssa R. Atwood1, Kim M Cobb2, John Chiang3, Clay Richard Tabor4, Bette L Otto-Bliesner5, Pamela R Grothe6, Hussein R Sayani7, John Richard Southon8, R. Lawrence Edwards9, Hai Cheng10, Daniel Deocampo11, Nicholas Thomas Hitt12 and Tianran Chen6, (1)University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)UC Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (7)Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (8)Univ California, Irvine, CA, United States, (9)Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (10)Xi’an Jiaotong University, Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an, China, (11)Georgia State University, Department of Geosciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (12)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Holocene ENSO variability in the southwest Pacific (321818)
Thierry Correge, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, France and Pacmedy consortium
Definition of Extreme El Niño and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Niño Frequency (308243)
Guojian Wang1,2, Wenju Cai1,2, Agus Santoso1,3, Xiaopei Lin4 and Lixin Wu4, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, (3)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, (4)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Tropical variability under greenhouse warming: what is the impact of model biases (308501)
Wenju Cai1,2, Agus Santoso1,3, Guojian Wang1,2 and Lixin Wu4, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, (3)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, (4)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

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