PC14B:
Toward a 1.5°C World: Mechanisms of Ocean Sensitivity and Reversibility II Posters


Session ID#: 37815

Session Description:
The ocean plays a key role in modulating the response of the Earth system to anthropogenic climate change through the uptake, transport, and storage of excess heat and carbon. In order to inform the development of feasible mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the COP21 Agreement targets of limiting global temperature rise to less than 1.5 to 2 C above preindustrial levels, it is important to understand processes relevant to the ocean’s role in sequestering heat and carbon and work toward quantifying and reducing their uncertainties. It is increasingly likely that without substantial near-term reductions in carbon emissions, the world will experience “overshoot” scenarios where the COP21 temperature targets are temporarily exceeded. Ultimately, achieving these targets may necessitate subsequent negative emissions though geoengineering measures. It is important to understand what changes to the ocean will occur under such scenarios, their reversibility, and their timescales. Based on observations and modeling efforts, this session explores mechanisms of uptake, transport, and storage of heat and carbon as they relate to ocean sensitivity and reversibility under different mitigation scenarios aimed at limiting global warming.
Primary Chair:  John P Krasting, NOAA / GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Co-chairs:  Ivy Frenger, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, Andrew Lenton, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia and Kirsten Zickfeld, Simon Fraser University, Department of Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Moderators:  Kirsten Zickfeld, Simon Fraser University, Department of Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada and Andrew Lenton, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Student Paper Review Liaisons:  Andrew Lenton, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia and Kirsten Zickfeld, Simon Fraser University, Department of Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1635 Oceans [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4273 Physical and biogeochemical interactions [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Cross-Topics:
  • AI - Air-Sea Interactions
  • BN - Biogeochemistry and Nutrients
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
  • OM - Ocean Modeling

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Oceanic Controls on the Scenario Dependency of the Relationship Between Cumulative Carbon Emissions and Surface Warming (307238)
Katherine Elise Turner, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom, Ric Williams, Liverpool University, School of Environmental Sciences, Liverpool, United Kingdom and Andreas Oschlies, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Changes in Photosynthetically Available Radiation and Impacts on the Oceanic Carbon and Heat Uptake (312551)
Maria Fernanda Aristizabal, SciSpace, New York, NY, United States and Anastasia Romanou, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States
Implications of Multi-Year Global Coral Bleaching on a 1.5°C World (312734)
C. Mark Eakin1, Jacqueline L De La Cour2,3, Erick F Geiger1,3, Andrea M Gomez4,5, Scott F Heron6, Ove Hoegh-guldberg7,8, Gang Liu2,9, Ben Marsh6,10, William J Skirving6, Alan E Strong5 and Kyle Tirak1,11, (1)NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Global Science and Technology Inc Greenbelt, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-UMD/CISESS, College Park, United States, (4)City University of New York, Ecosystem Science Lab and NOAA-CREST, New York, NY, United States, (5)NOAA Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (6)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Townsville, Australia, (7)University of Queensland, Global Change Institute, Brisbane, Australia, (8)University of Queensland, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, Brisbane, Australia, (9)NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, United States, (10)University of Queensland, School of Biological Sciences, St Lucia, Australia, (11)Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States
Difference of Dynamic Sea Level Changes between Extended RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 Senarios in MIROC5.0 (314849)
Tatsuo Suzuki, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Yokohama, Japan
The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP) (Invited) (320201)
David P Keller, Carbon to Sea, United States, Andrew Lenton, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Vivian Scott, University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom and Chris Jones, University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, Norwich, United Kingdom
Observational, Geological and Theoretical Constraints on Emissions Pathways to 1.5 and 2 °C Warming (321349)
Philip Goodwin1, Richard G Williams2, Vassil Roussenov3, Anna Katavouta3, Gavin L Foster4 and Eelco Johan Rohling5, (1)University of Southampton, Southampton, SO14, United Kingdom, (2)University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69, United Kingdom, (3)University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (4)University of Southampton, School of Ocean and Earth Science, Southampton, United Kingdom, (5)Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, Australia

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