The Influence of Climate Change on Human Migration: A South African Case Study

Abstract:

Both gradual changes in climate as well as extreme events have been shown to influence human migration patterns in many regions of the world. Given the implications of migration for the well-being and security of migrants, as well as that of the communities sending and receiving them, it is important for policymakers from both the federal and international level to be prepared for the extent and manner in which climate change will alter migration flows. Here we present the preliminary results of a study aimed at identifying the relative influence of climate on recent internal migration decisions in South Africa. We focus on South Africa as it is a country that has high-volume internal migration flows, is projected to experience dramatic shifts in climate, and has a large population that is vulnerable to climate change through, for example, its reliance on rainfed agriculture. We utilize the results of the nationally representative National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS) to construct statistical models that predict the probability of an individual decision to migrate based on individual characteristics (e.g. age, gender, race, and education-level), household-level characteristics (e.g. assets and migration-network connections), and local climate (e.g. minimum and maximum temperature, as well as precipitation over monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods). We also incorporate local agricultural production data into the models to capture indirect effects of climate on local conditions. With this study, and together with a macro-level study being carried out in parallel, we consider the potential for projected changes in climate to influence South African migration patterns, as well as identify the characteristics of individuals whose decisions to stay or move will most likely be influenced by changing climate. Finally, we put the results of this study into a broader context by comparing our findings with those carried out in other regions.