PC003:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity, Predictability, and Impacts


Session ID#: 28002

Session Description:
The last three boreal winters in the tropical Pacific have exhibited an unlikely and confounding sequence of ENSO states. In the winter of 2014/15, a previously heralded extreme El Niño resulted in only a limited basin-wide warming. This was followed by an extreme El Niño event in the winter of 2015/16, which, however, did not have the strong eastern Pacific warming characteristic of previous extreme events. Also, unlike previous extreme El Niño events, a weaker than expected La Niña followed in 2016 accompanied by an intense warming near the coast of South America (Coastal El Niño) during the 2017 winter. In addition to the unexpected variability during these years, the impacts of ENSO in some remote locations deviated from expectations. These challenges highlight the need for a continued study of ENSO diversity, including its origin, predictability, global impacts, and interactions with anthropogenic climate change. We welcome observational, model, and paleo studies that focus on the challenges brought to light by the recent ENSO sequence, as well as studies of longer-term, multi-decadal ENSO variability, impacts of climate change on ENSO, and general ENSO dynamics.
Primary Chair:  Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Co-chairs:  Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Cross-Topics:
  • AI - Air-Sea Interactions
  • MM - Microbiology and Molecular Ecology
  • PL - Physical Oceanography: Mesoscale and Larger
  • RS - Regional Studies

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

P Ted Strub, Corinne James and Craig M Risien, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States
Nathalie Goodkin, Nanyang Technological University, Asian School of the Environment, Singapore, Singapore, Sujata A Murty, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, Riovie Ramos, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, Annette Bolton, Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, Kristopher B Karnauskas, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Konrad A Hughen, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Xin Wang1, Wei Tan2 and Chunzai Wang1, (1)South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China, (2)First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou, China
Lu Dong and Michael J McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Zesheng Chen1, Yan DU2, Zhiping Wen3, Renguang Wu4 and Chunzai Wang1, (1)South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China, (2)SCSIO South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Acaademy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China, (3)Fudan University, Shanghai, China, (4)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Shih-Wei Fang, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Jin-Yi Yu, Univ California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Guojian Wang1,2, Wenju Cai1,2, Agus Santoso1,3, Xiaopei Lin2 and Lixin Wu2, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, (3)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Wenju Cai1,2, Agus Santoso1,3, Guojian Wang1,2 and Lixin Wu2, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, (3)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Priya Sharma1, Awnesh M Singh2, Irina Marinov1 and Tihomir S Kostadinov3, (1)University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States, (2)USP, Suva, Fiji, (3)Assistant Researcher, Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, United States
Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Xiuhua Zhu, Ocean University of Shanghai, Marine sciences, Shanghai, China; University of Hamburg, Hamburg, GA, Germany
Daniel L Rudnick1, Breck Owens2, Kristopher B Karnauskas3, Shaun Johnston1, Katherine Dorothy Zaba4 and Robert E Todd5, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MA, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, United States, (5)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Travis Allen Schramek1, Brian Powell2, Patrick Colin3, Luca Raffaele Centurioni1, Bo Qiu4, Daniel L Rudnick1, Martha Schonau5, Sarah E Zedler6 and Eric J Terrill7, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States, (3)Coral Reef Research Foundation, Koror, Palau, (4)Univ Hawaii Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (5)Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (6)Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (7)SIO, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, United States
Keri Kodama and Natalie Burls, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
Ying Feng, University of Washington Seattle, Department of Applied Mathematics, Seattle, WA, United States, Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Applied Mathematics, Seattle, WA, United States and Xianyao Chen, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Ichiro Yasuda, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
Rong-Hua Zhang, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
Luis B Orihuela Pinto, University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom
Yujia You and Jason C Furtado, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Sang-Ki Lee1, Hosmay Lopez1, Eui-Seok Chung2, Pedro DiNezro3, Sang-Wook Yeh4 and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg5, (1)Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, United States, (2)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (4)Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (5)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Chang-Woong Shin, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Dimitri Gutiérrez, Peruvian Institute of Marine Research IMARPE, Oceanography and Climate Change, Callao, Peru
Chengyang Guan, SCSIO South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China, Ruixin Huang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Xin Wang, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, Michelle L L'heureux, NOAA, CPC, United States and Jin-Ho Yoon, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Kirk Sato1,2 and Lisa A Levin2, (1)Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, Marine Biophysics Unit, Tancha, Japan, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Vladyslav Tymofeev, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Kiev, Ukraine
Nicola Maher1,2, Jochem Marotzke1 and Daniela Matei1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Bonn, Germany
Adrian Marchetti1, Scott Michael Gifford1, Harvey Seim1, Natalie Cohen1, Carly Moreno1, Sara Haines1, Erika F Neave1, Stephen J Walsh2, Diego Paez-Rosas3 and Carlos Mena4, (1)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Marine Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, (2)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Geography, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, (3)Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Isla San Cristobal, Ecuador, (4)Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito, Ecuador
John Bruun1, J Icarus Allen2 and Timothy J Smyth2, (1)Independent, Sweet Briar, Totnes, United Kingdom, (2)Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom
Jason C Furtado, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States and Yujia You, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Jan Luedke1, Marcus Dengler1, Gerd Krahmann1, Sunke Schmidtko1, Soeren Thomsen1 and Martin Visbeck1,2, (1)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (2)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Benjamin Hamlington, Old Dominion University, Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Norfolk, VA, United States and Se-Hyeon Cheon, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Prashant D Sardeshmukh, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
Erin Thomas, University of Wisconsin Madison, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI, United States, Daniel Vimont, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Cecile Penland, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Thierry Correge, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, France and Pacmedy consortium
Soumi Chakravorty, NOAA Miami, United States, Dr. Gnanaseelan Chellappan, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ocean Modelling development and Data Assimilation, Pune, India and Renellys C Perez, UM/CIMAS, Miami, FL, United States
Shirley Leung, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, LuAnne Thompson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States and Allison Smith-Mislan, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States
Anna Borovikov, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Jelena Marshak, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Robin M Kovach, NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Ken Takahashi, Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru
Kang Xu, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Guangzhou, China, Rui Xin Huang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Physical Oceanography,, MA, United States, Weiqiang Wang, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Guangzhou 510301, China, Congwen Zhu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Institute of Climate System, China and Riyu Lu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Alyssa R. Atwood1, Kim M Cobb2, John Chiang3, Clay Richard Tabor4, Bette L Otto-Bliesner5, Pamela R Grothe6, Hussein R Sayani7, John Richard Southon8, R. L. Edwards9, Hai Cheng10, Daniel Deocampo11, Nicholas Thomas Hitt12 and Tianran Chen6, (1)University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)UC Berkeley, Geography, CA, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (7)Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (8)Univ California, Irvine, CA, United States, (9)Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (10)Xi’an Jiaotong University, Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an, China, (11)Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, United States, (12)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Andrew M Chiodi, University of Washington Seattle Campus, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States
Joshua Ndiwa Ngaina, South Eastern Kenya University, Meteorology, Kitui, Kenya and Bethwel Kipkoech Mutai, University of Nairobi, Meteorology, Nairobi, Kenya