ES003:
Marine Ecosystem Forecasting for Decision-Making


Session ID#: 28503

Session Description:
Much like weather forecasting, ocean ecosystem forecasting has potential benefit to society in many ways. Forecasts can provide managers, stakeholders, fishers, residents, and public health officials with prognostic information relevant to decisions they are facing. Thanks to advances in modeling, monitoring, and theory, there are a number of ocean ecosystem forecasts that are operational or in development on time scales ranging from daily to seasonal, with practical implications for industry operations, recreation and tourism, and human health and well being.  Predictions at the decadal scale or longer can provide strategic advice to marine dependent industries and coastal communities. Most scientists focus on the technical barriers that must be overcome to provide reliable predictions of complex, interconnected systems.  However, forecasts are meant to be used by people, and considerable challenges exist with understanding how forecast information is digested, interpreted, and used. This session will showcase a range of existing and experimental ocean ecosystem forecasts, discuss the challenges and successes of forecasting, and continue to build a community of forecasters as ecosystem forecasting grows into its own branch of oceanographic research
Primary Chair:  Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Co-Chair:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
Index Terms:

1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
Cross-Topics:
  • EP - Ecology and Physical Interactions
  • ED - Education, Outreach and Policy
  • OM - Ocean Modeling

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Stephanie Jenouvrier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Jimmy Garnier, CNRS, LAMA, France
Grant A Smith, Bureau of Meteorology, Science to Services, Melbourne, Australia and Claire M Spillman, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Nicholas Record1, Andrew J Pershing2 and Benjamin Tupper1, (1)Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States, (2)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
Erin Meyer-Gutbrod, University of California Santa Barbara, Marine Science Institute, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Charles H Greene, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States
Scott F Heron1,2, Gang Liu2,3, Jamie Caldwell4,5, Megan Donahue6, Austin Greene5, William Leggat7,8, Tracy D Ainsworth8, Bernardo Vargas-Angel9, Courtney Couch9, Bruce C Monger10, Joleah B Lamb11, Laurie J Raymundo12, Bette L Willis8, Erick Francis Geiger2,3, Jacqueline L De La Cour2,3, Ben Marsh1,13, William J Skirving1,2, Kyle Tirak2,3 and C. Mark Eakin3, (1)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Townsville, Australia, (2)Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NOAA Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Stanford University, Department of Biology, Stanford, CA, United States, (5)University of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Kane‘ohe, HI, United States, (6)University of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, Kane‘ohe, HI, United States, (7)James Cook University, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, Townsville, Australia, (8)James Cook University, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Australia, (9)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ecosystem Sciences Division, Honolulu, HI, United States, (10)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (11)Cornell University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Ithaca, NY, United States, (12)University of Guam, University of Guam Marine Laboratory, Mangilao, Guam, (13)University of Queensland, School of Biological Sciences, St Lucia, Australia
Gang Liu1,2, Mingyue Chen3, Jacqueline L De La Cour1,2, Erick Francis Geiger1,2, Scott F Heron2,4, William J Skirving4, Kyle Tirak1,2, Arun Kumar3 and C. Mark Eakin1, (1)NOAA Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, (4)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Townsville, Australia
Carl T Friedrichs1, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs1, Aaron J Bever2, Susanna Musick1 and Raleigh R Hood3, (1)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (2)Anchor QEA, San Francisco, CA, United States, (3)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD, United States
Rebecca Lee Selden1, Ryan D Batt1, Vince Saba2, Malin L. Pinsky3, Stephanie Brodie4, Ellen Willis-Norton5 and Elliott L. Hazen4, (1)Rutgers University, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Rutgers University, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (4)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (5)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
Hyang Yoon1, Brian T Glazer1, Hou In Lio1, Brenda Asuncion2 and Philip R Thompson1, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)Kua'āina Ulu 'Auamo, HI, United States
Handy Chandra and Bertha Berlian Borneo, Ministry for Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Rep. Indonesia, Agency for R&D of Marine & Fisheries Technology., Jakarta, Indonesia
Mari Skuggedal Myksvoll, Institute of Marine Research Bergen, United States and Anne Dagrun Sandvik, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
Xujing Jia Davis, Terrence M Joyce and Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Sudhir Nadiga1, Vladimir Krasnopolsky2, Shastri Paturi1, Hae-Cheol Kim3, Avichal Mehra4, Eric J Bayler5, Ilya Rivin6 and Zulema D Garraffo7, (1)IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (3)IMSG at NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, (4)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (5)Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (6)IMSG, NCEP / Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (7)IMSG, College Park, MD, United States
Jason R Hartog1, Alistair J Hobday1, J Paige Eveson1, Claire M Spillman2, Kylie Scales3, Toby Patterson1, Xuebin Zhang1, Richard Matear1, Don Bromhead4, John Hampton5, John Annala6, Robert Campbell1, Sean Tracey7 and Simon Nicol8, (1)CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (3)University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia, (4)AFMA, Australia, (5)SPC, New Caledonia, (6)MPI, New Zealand, (7)University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, (8)ABARES, Canberra, Australia
Lifei Wang1, Lisa A Kerr1, Nicholas Record2, Eric Bridger1, Benjamin Tupper2, Katherine Mills1, Edward M Armstrong3 and Andrew J Pershing1, (1)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States, (2)Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Katherine Mills1, Andrew Allyn2, Justin Schuetz1 and Andrew J Pershing1, (1)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States, (2)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, United States