ES44B:
Marine Ecosystem Forecasting for Decision Making I Posters


Session ID#: 28503

Session Description:
Much like weather forecasting, ocean ecosystem forecasting has potential benefit to society in many ways. Forecasts can provide managers, stakeholders, fishers, residents, and public health officials with prognostic information relevant to decisions they are facing. Thanks to advances in modeling, monitoring, and theory, there are a number of ocean ecosystem forecasts that are operational or in development on time scales ranging from daily to seasonal, with practical implications for industry operations, recreation and tourism, and human health and well being. Predictions at the decadal scale or longer can provide strategic advice to marine dependent industries and coastal communities. Most scientists focus on the technical barriers that must be overcome to provide reliable predictions of complex, interconnected systems. However, forecasts are meant to be used by people, and considerable challenges exist with understanding how forecast information is digested, interpreted, and used. This session will showcase a range of existing and experimental ocean ecosystem forecasts, discuss the challenges and successes of forecasting, and continue to build a community of forecasters as ecosystem forecasting grows into its own branch of oceanographic research
Primary Chair:  Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Co-Chair:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
Moderators:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States and Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
Index Terms:

1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
Cross-Topics:
  • EP - Ecology and Physical Interactions
  • ED - Education, Outreach and Policy
  • OM - Ocean Modeling

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Influence of dispersal processes on the global dynamics of Emperor penguin, a species threatened by climate change. (302351)
Stephanie Jenouvrier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Jimmy Garnier, CNRS, LAMA, France
Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for predicting Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef (303872)
Grant A Smith, Bureau of Meteorology, Science to Services, Melbourne, Australia and Claire M Spillman, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Improving Seasonal Forecasting of Coral Disease Outbreak Risk (306123)
Scott F Heron1,2, Gang Liu2,3, Jamie Caldwell4,5, Megan Donahue6, Austin Greene5, William Leggat7,8, Tracy D Ainsworth8, Bernardo Vargas-Angel9, Courtney Couch9, Bruce C Monger10, Joleah B Lamb11, Laurie J Raymundo12, Bette L Willis8, Erick Francis Geiger13,14, Jacqueline L De La Cour2,13, Ben Marsh1,15, William J Skirving2,16, Kyle Tirak2,14 and C. Mark Eakin14, (1)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Townsville, Australia, (2)Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NOAA Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Stanford University, Department of Biology, Stanford, CA, United States, (5)University of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Kane‘ohe, HI, United States, (6)University of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, Kane‘ohe, HI, United States, (7)James Cook University, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, Townsville, Australia, (8)James Cook University, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Australia, (9)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ecosystem Sciences Division, Honolulu, HI, United States, (10)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (11)Cornell University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Ithaca, NY, United States, (12)University of Guam, University of Guam Marine Laboratory, Mangilao, Guam, (13)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-UMD_CICS, College Park, MD, United States, (14)NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (15)University of Queensland, School of Biological Sciences, St Lucia, Australia, (16)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Aitkenvale, QLD, Australia
Prediction of silver hake distribution on the Northeast U.S. shelf based on the Gulf Stream path index (318193)
Xujing Jia Davis, Terrence M Joyce and Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Predicting Marine Pelagic Fish Species Spatiotemporal Distributions Utilizing a Maximum Entropy Approach (324622)
Lifei Wang1, Lisa A Kerr1, Nicholas Record2, Eric Bridger1, Benjamin Tupper2, Katherine Mills1, Edward M Armstrong3 and Andrew J Pershing1, (1)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States, (2)Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States

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