OM42A:
Ensemble Modeling Approaches in Physical and Biogeochemical Oceanography I


Session ID#: 37798

Session Description:
Ensemble modeling methods have been applied to a wide range of oceanographic and climate questions since their original application in numerical weather preduction several decades ago. Such applications currenty encompass not only climate projections (pertaining to detection and time of emergence) and predictability/prediction studies, but also forecast modeling (operational oceanography) and data assimilation. Additionally, ensemble methods are applied to physical state variables, ocean biogeochemistry, and potential ocean ecosystem stressors. As such, the range of applications informs and facilitates collaborative efforts in both the interpretation of an assimilation of observational records.

This session welcomes studies that employ ensemble methods in a wide range of applications relevant to physical and biogeochemical oceanography and the role of the ocean in the climate system. Abstracts are particularly welcomed that focus on the interplay between ocean physical and biogeochemical processes, proceses in high-latitude environments, and studies of marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

Primary Chair:  Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Co-chairs:  Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, Thomas L Froelicher, Universtity of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland and Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Moderators:  Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States and Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Index Terms:

1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Cross-Topics:
  • BN - Biogeochemistry and Nutrients
  • HE - High Latitude Environments
  • PC - Past, Present and Future Climate

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Multi-scale chaotic ocean variability modulated by the atmosphere: results from the OCCIPUT ensemble of global eddying ocean simulations (305482)
Thierry Penduff1, Sally E Close2, Stephanie Leroux2, Ixetl Garcia-Gomez2, Guillaume Serazin2,3, Laurent Bessières4, Jean Marc Molines1, Bernard Barnier1 and Laurent Terray4, (1)CNRS - IGE, MEOM, Grenoble, France, (2)IGE, MEOM, Grenoble, France, (3)LEGOS/IRD, Toulouse, France, (4)CERFACS, Toulouse, France
The Oceanic Response to Tropical Volcanoes: Insights from the Large Ensemble Experiment (325558)
Yassir Eddebbar1, Keith B Rodgers2, Matthew C Long3 and Ralph F Keeling1, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, (3)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
Emergence of Anthropogenic Signals in the Ocean  (312401)
Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, Jorge L Sarmiento, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton, NJ, United States, John P Dunne, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States and Thomas L Froelicher, Universtity of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland
Improved Seasonal Prediction of Winter NAO through Ensemble Sub-sampling. (316539)
Mikhail Dobrynin1, Daniela Domeisen2, Wolfgang A. Müller3, Louisa Bell3, Sebastian Brune1, André Düsterhus1, Kristina Fröhlich4, Holger Pohlmann3 and Johanna Baehr1, (1)Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, (2)ETH Zurich, Dep. of Environmental Systems Science, Zurich, Switzerland, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach am Main, Germany
The Copernicus Marine Service Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product GREPV1: Deriving Robustness Estimates For Ocean Variability Over The Altimetry Era. (316747)
Marie Drevillon1, Clement Bricaud2, Yann Drillet2, Karina von Schuckmann3, Gilles Garric2, Simona Masina4, Andrea Storto5, Laura C Jackson6, Clotilde Dubois7, Andrew Peterson6, Richard A. Wood6, Hao Zuo8, Balmaseda Magdalena8, Sandrine Mulet9, Stéphanie Guinehut10, Tanguy Szekely11, Jérôme Gourrion12, Laurent Parent13, Charly Regnier2 and Charles Desportes7, (1)Mercator Océan, Ramonville St Agne, France, (2)Mercator Océan, Ramonville Saint Agne, France, (3)Mercator Océan, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France, (4)CMCC - Bologna, Bologna, Italy, (5)Fondazione CMCC, Bolognia, Italy, (6)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (7)Mercator Océan, France, (8)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (9)CLS Collecte Localisation Satellites, Plouzané, France, (10)Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Ramonville Saint‑Agne, France, (11)CORIOLIS, Brest, France, (12)CORIOLIS, France, (13)Mercator Océan, Ramonville Saint Agn, France

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