ES52A:
Marine Ecosystem Forecasting for Decision Making II


Session ID#: 37973

Session Description:
Much like weather forecasting, ocean ecosystem forecasting has potential benefit to society in many ways. Forecasts can provide managers, stakeholders, fishers, residents, and public health officials with prognostic information relevant to decisions they are facing. Thanks to advances in modeling, monitoring, and theory, there are a number of ocean ecosystem forecasts that are operational or in development on time scales ranging from daily to seasonal, with practical implications for industry operations, recreation and tourism, and human health and well being. Predictions at the decadal scale or longer can provide strategic advice to marine dependent industries and coastal communities. Most scientists focus on the technical barriers that must be overcome to provide reliable predictions of complex, interconnected systems. However, forecasts are meant to be used by people, and considerable challenges exist with understanding how forecast information is digested, interpreted, and used. This session will showcase a range of existing and experimental ocean ecosystem forecasts, discuss the challenges and successes of forecasting, and continue to build a community of forecasters as ecosystem forecasting grows into its own branch of oceanographic research
Primary Chair:  Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Co-Chair:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
Moderators:  Katherine Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States and Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
Index Terms:

1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
Cross-Topics:
  • EP - Ecology and Physical Interactions
  • ED - Education, Outreach and Policy
  • OM - Ocean Modeling

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal-Scale Prediction of Coral Bleaching Heat Stress for Effective Reef Monitoring and Management: NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s Probabilistic Four-Month Outlook (308092)
Gang Liu1,2, Mingyue Chen3, Jacqueline L De La Cour2,4, Erick Francis Geiger4,5, Scott F Heron2,6, William J Skirving6,7, Kyle Tirak2,5, Arun Kumar3 and C. Mark Eakin5, (1)NOAA Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, (4)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-UMD_CICS, College Park, MD, United States, (5)NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, MD, United States, (6)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Townsville, Australia, (7)NOAA Coral Reef Watch-ReefSense, Aitkenvale, QLD, Australia
Hypoxia Forecasts as a Tool for Chesapeake Bay Fisheries (312380)
Carl T Friedrichs1, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs1, Aaron J Bever2, Susanna Musick1 and Raleigh R Hood3, (1)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (2)Anchor QEA, San Francisco, CA, United States, (3)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD, United States
Forecasting The Impact Of Salmon Lice On Wild Salmonids (316808)
Mari Skuggedal Myksvoll, Institute of Marine Research Bergen, United States and Anne Dagrun Sandvik, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
Forecasting Population Growth of the Endangered North Atlantic Right Whale in a Changing Environment (305098)
Erin Meyer-Gutbrod, University of California Santa Barbara, Marine Science Institute, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Charles H Greene, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States
Enabling real-time tide measurements and site-specific sea level forecasting for improved resource management in the coastal zone (313895)
Hyang Yoon1, Brian T Glazer1, Hou In Lio1, Brenda Asuncion2 and Philip R Thompson3, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)Kua'āina Ulu 'Auamo, HI, United States, (3)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Oceanography, Honolulu, HI, United States
Seasonal and decadal forecast development for a multi-species pelagic longline fishery (324211)
Jason R Hartog1, Alistair J Hobday1, J Paige Eveson1, Claire M Spillman2, Kylie Scales3, Toby Patterson1, Xuebin Zhang1, Richard Matear1, Don Bromhead4, John Hampton5, John Annala6, Robert Campbell1, Sean Tracey7 and Simon Nicol8, (1)CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (2)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (3)University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Australia, (4)AFMA, Australia, (5)SPC, New Caledonia, (6)MPI, New Zealand, (7)University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, (8)ABARES, Canberra, Australia
Uncertainty and skill of future projections of marine species distributions (325903)
Katherine Mills, Andrew Allyn, Justin Schuetz and Andrew J Pershing, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States

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