S23A:
Aftershock Hazard: Forecasting Highly Time- and Space-Dependent Seismicity and Shaking after Large Mainshocks II Posters

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 1:40 PM-6:00 PM
Chairs:  Anne E Strader, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Antoine Schlupp, EOST École et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, Strasbourg Cedex, France
Primary Conveners:  Ross S Stein, USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Co-conveners:  Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan, Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Roma, Italy and Volkan Sevilgen, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

4467
 
Study of Active Faults in the Three Gorges Dam region by Detecting and Relocating Aftershocks
Rong Huang1, Lupei Zhu1,2 and Yixian Xu1, (1)China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China, (2)Saint Louis University Main Campus, Saint Louis, MO, United States
4468
 
seismic space-time transformation of the periphery of the Ordos block
Ding Qi, Liu Chun Ping and Shi Yun, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
4469
 
Effects of Aftershock Declustering in Risk Modeling: Case Study of a Subduction Sequence in Mexico
Deborah L Kane and Marleen Nyst, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States
4470
 
Inland Normal Faulting during the Mw 6.6 Iwaki Earthquake Induced By Temporal Change of Stress State after the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan
Ayumu Miyakawa, AIST, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan and Makoto Otsubo, Tsukuba, Japan
4471
 
Bayesian Predictive Distribution for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock
Robert Shcherbakov, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
4472
 
Can We Forecast 1-Month Span Aftershock Activity from the First Day Data after the Main Shock?
Takahiro Omi1, Yosihiko Ogata2, Yoshito Hirata1 and Kazuyuki Aihara1, (1)Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Inst Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
4473
 
Local receiver fault dependency of seismicity shut down in the 2011 Tohoku-oki stress shadow
Yuhei Suzuki, Shinji Toda, Keisuke Yoshida and Tomomi Okada, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
4474
 
Application of Geostatistical Methods and Machine Learning for spatio-temporal Earthquake Cluster Analysis
Andreas M Schaefer1,2, James E Daniell1 and Friedemann Wenzel1, (1)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe, Germany, (2)Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
4475
 
Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones　-from the View of Slip Deficit-
Ryoya Ikuta, Yuta Mitsui and Masataka Ando, Shizuoka University, Shizuoka, Japan
4476
 
Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin
An Yin, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Xiangjiang Yu, Peking University, Beijing, China and Zhengkang Shen, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States
4477
 
150 Years of Coulomb Stress History Along the California-Nevada Border, USA.
Alessandro Verdecchia and Sara Carena, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
4478
 
Prediction of Future Great Earthquake Locations from Cumulative Stresses Released by Prior Earthquakes
Junhyung Lee and Tae-Kyung Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
4479
 
Short-term earthquake probabilities during the L’Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009
Giuseppe Falcone1, Maura Murru1, Jiancang Zhuang2 and Rodolfo Console1,3, (1)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (2)ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, (3)Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area, Potenza, Italy
4480
 
Statistics of Static Stress Earthquake Triggering
Shyam Nandan1, Guy Ouillon2, Jochen Woessner1, Didier Sornette1 and Stefan Wiemer1, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)Lithophyse, Nice, France
4481
 
Retrospective Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence
Maximilian J Werner1,2, Warner Marzocchi3, Matteo Taroni3, Jeremy D Zechar4, Matt Gerstenberger5, Masha Liukis6, David A Rhoades5, Camilla Cattania7, Annemarie Christophersen5, Sebastian Hainzl7, Agnes Helmstetter8, Abigail Jimenez9, Sandy Steacy9 and Thomas H Jordan6, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (4)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (6)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (7)Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, (8)ISTerre Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Martin d'Hères, France, (9)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom
4482
 
Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan: Development of a time-dependent approach and implementation of the Taiwan Earthquake Model parameters
Chung-Han Chan1,2, Yu Wang1, Yu-Ju Wang3,4, Ya-Ting Lee4, J Bruce H Shyu2, Marco Pagani5 and Graeme Weatherill5, (1)EOS, Nanyang Technological Univ., Singapore, Singapore, (2)National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, (3)Academia Sinica, Jhongli City, Taoyuan County, Taiwan, (4)National Central Univ., Jhongli, Taiwan, (5)GEM FOUNDATION, Pavia, Italy
4483
 
Possible Interactions between the 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii Subduction Earthquake and the Transform Queen Charlotte Fault
Tiegan E Hobbs1, John F Cassidy1,2 and Stan E Dosso1, (1)University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)Geological Survey of Canada Sidney, Sidney, BC, Canada
4484
 
Data sensitivity in a hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for aftershock forecasting
Abigail Jimenez Lloret1, Sandy Steacy1 and Matt Gerstenberger2, (1)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom, (2)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
4485
 
Rate-and-State Southern California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities
Anne E Strader and David D Jackson, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
4486
 
Tests of remote aftershock triggering by small mainshocks using Taiwan’s earthquake catalog
Wei Peng and Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
4487
 
A Century of Aftershocks Related to Large Intracontinental Earthquakes: A Seismic Behavior for Hazard Assessment.
Sodnomsambuu Gunjiin Demberel1, Antoine Schlupp2 and Ulziibat Munkhuu1, (1)Research Center for Astronomy and Geophysics, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, (2)EOST École et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, Strasbourg Cedex, France
4488
 
Recent Developments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
Masha Liukis1, Maximilian J Werner2, Danijel Schorlemmer1, John Yu3, Philip J Maechling1, Jeremy D Zechar4 and Thomas H Jordan1, (1)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
4489
 
Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.
Delphine D Fitzenz1, Marleen Nyst1, Edwin V Apel1 and Robert Muir-Wood2, (1)Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States, (2)Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom
 
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